Chart 04 — Three Growth Engines

EMLs Today. OCS Tomorrow. CPO After That.

Lumentum's staggered revenue runway: three product lines at different stages of maturity
▲ Now — Core
EML Laser Chips
200G per lane · 1.6T Enabler
50–60%
Global market share, high-end EML
+40% / yr
Capacity expansion committed for 2025 & 2026
  • Only at-volume supplier of 200G EMLs globally
  • Demand exceeds supply by 25–30%
  • Pricing power confirmed — double-digit ASP increases in 2026
  • Required for every 1.6T transceiver shipped
↑ Scaling — OCS
Optical Circuit Switches
Data Center Fabric Routing
$400M+
Backlog as of Q2 FY2026
$100M/Q
Target quarterly revenue by end CY2026
  • Cleared $10M/quarter 3 months ahead of target
  • 3 hyperscaler customers now (was 1 in 2025)
  • Google demonstrating 40% power savings via OCS
  • Zero electrical conversion = lower latency + energy
→ Pipeline — CPO
Co-Packaged Optics
Optics Integrated Into the ASIC
$100M+
Single CPO order received, H1 2027 delivery
2027–28
Expected volume revenue ramp
  • Optics packaged directly into network switch chip
  • 3.5× efficiency improvement vs pluggable optics
  • NVIDIA planning CPO in 2027+ hardware generations
  • Lumentum received largest single order in company history

Source: Lumentum Q2 FY2026 & Q3 FY2026 earnings calls. OCS = Optical Circuit Switch. CPO = Co-Packaged Optics. EML = Electro-Absorption Modulated Laser. Market share estimates from mlq.ai research and Anand Capital analysis. CPO efficiency data from industry research.
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