Chart 05 — Project Vanguard: Geopolitical Moat
Why "Made in USA" is a Competitive Advantage, Not a Slogan
US vs China optical manufacturing positioning — and the Greensboro fab timeline
Export ControlsNo restrictions
Hyperscaler StatusPreferred & growing
NVIDIA Partnership$2B each · Locked in
Technology Tier200G EML · Only supplier
Fab LocationSan Jose CA + Greensboro NC
Supply ReliabilityNo geopolitical risk
VS
Export ControlsSubject to BIS rules
Hyperscaler StatusActively being reduced
NVIDIA PartnershipExcluded under controls
Technology Tier100G EML · 2–3yr gap
Fab LocationChina (supply chain risk)
Supply ReliabilityGeopolitical uncertainty
Project Vanguard: Greensboro, NC New Fab — Milestone Timeline
Mar 2026
NVIDIA $2B investment confirmed. Fab funding secured.
Mid 2026
Site construction underway. 1.6T DR4 module shipments begin.
H2 2027
First CPO deliveries from new fab. Yield qualification phase.
2028
Full volume production. Supports $2B quarterly revenue target.
The Bigger Picture for Indian Investors
India's own hyperscaler build-out (Google, Microsoft, Amazon data centers in Mumbai, Pune, Hyderabad) will eventually require this same optical infrastructure. The supply chain that Lumentum is building in the US is the same supply chain that will power Indian data centers. Indirectly, Lumentum's technology will be inside the AI infrastructure serving India — even if Lumentum has no direct India revenue line today.
CURIOUS INVESTING INSIGHTS