Chart 01 — The Indian Investor Cost Stack

From Gross USD Return to Net INR in Your Pocket

Full tax & friction analysis for base case scenario: $945 entry → $1,105 exit (consensus target, +17% USD) · Indian resident investor
Returns in % — LTCG vs STCG (per ₹10 lakh invested)
Cost Layer by Layer (LTCG Scenario)
USD Return (Base Case)
$945 → $1,105 per share
+17.0%
INR Depreciation Boost
₹95.1/$ today · estimate ₹99/$ at exit
+4.1%
LRS Remittance Cost
Forex spread + bank charges (entry)
-1.2%
TCS on Remittance
20% on amount above ₹10L — refundable in ITR
-0.5%
LTCG Tax (India)
12.5% on gains (>24 months holding)
-2.5%
US Dividend WHT
Lumentum pays no dividend — N/A
0%
NET INR RETURN (LTCG)
in hand, 24+ month hold
~16.9%
⚠ The 24-Month Rule Changes Everything
STCG tax at your income slab rate (up to 30%) vs LTCG at 12.5%. On a ₹10 lakh investment with 17% USD gain, the difference is roughly ₹2,400 in additional tax if you sell before 24 months. For HNIs in the 30% bracket, STCG can consume nearly half the return. The holding period is the single most important decision variable for Indian investors in this stock.
Assumptions: ₹10L invested at ₹95.1/$. USD return = base case +17%. INR depreciation estimated at ~4% over holding period. LRS cost = 1.2% (bank spread). TCS = 20% above ₹10L threshold (claimable in ITR, shown as real cost of capital lock-up). LTCG = 12.5% of net INR gain above ₹1.25L exemption. STCG = 30% slab rate for HNI. Returns are illustrative, not guaranteed.
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