Portfolio Outstanding & Active Accounts
Mar 2020 – Mar 2026 · POS in ₹ K Crore · Accounts in Lakh
₹1.00 L Cr
POS Mar-26
+20.8% YoY · First time crossing ₹1L Cr
1,019 L
Active Accounts Mar-26
vs 689L (Jun-23) — 48% growth in 3 yrs
₹9,813
Avg Outstanding / Account
Smallest avg ticket in retail
2.90x
POS growth FY20→FY26
Fastest volume expansion in retail
Portfolio Outstanding (₹ K Cr) vs Active Accounts (Lakh)
Account count growth outpacing POS — a unique feature of CD loans: volume-led, not ATS-led
Originations — Value & Volume
Annual FY2021–FY2026
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FY26: 897.5L loans × ₹19.8K ATS = ₹1.77L Cr originations. With POS at ₹1L Cr, the originations/POS ratio is 177% — even higher than gold loans. Average CD loan tenure is ~6–8 months, consistent with 6–12 month no-cost EMI structures on consumer electronics. This is essentially a revolving consumer finance product dressed as a term loan.
Annual Originations Value (₹ K Cr)
FY21–FY26 · 3x growth in 5 years
Volume (Lakh loans) — Volume Is the Story Here
289L (FY21) → 897.5L (FY26) — 3.1x in 5 years
Asset Quality — Seasonality Drives PAR, Not Credit Stress
PAR metrics show festive/quarter-end seasonality patterns — PAR 180+ spike in Sep data is methodological
⚠️
PAR 180+ spikes to 5.2–5.5% in Sep data but falls in Mar data — this is a data seasonality artefact. CD loans originated in Q3 (festive season: Oct-Dec) are only 6–8 months old by June/Sep reporting, so they haven't entered PAR 180+ yet. By March, the full festive cohort has seasoned and the non-performing accounts have been resolved. Analysts comparing Sep-quarter PAR 180+ to Mar-quarter PAR are seeing a seasonal signal, not structural credit deterioration.
PAR Trend — All Reported Periods
Note the seasonality: Sep readings show higher PAR 180+ than Mar readings consistently
PAR Snapshot Table
| Period | PAR 31–90% | PAR 91–180% | PAR 180+% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar-2020 | 2.8% | 1.2% | 4.0% |
| Mar-2021 | 1.5% | 2.4% | 9.5% |
| Mar-2022 | 0.9% | 0.6% | 2.8% |
| Mar-2023 | 1.3% | 1.0% | 3.3% |
| Mar-2024 | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.9% |
| Jun-2024 | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| Sep-2024 | 1.3% | 1.2% | 5.2% |
| Jun-2025 | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% |
| Sep-2025 | 1.3% | 1.1% | 5.5% |
| Mar-2026 | ~0.9% | ~0.7% | ~1.5% |
Lender Share — NBFC Oligopoly, Private Banks on the Move
Jun-25: NBFCs 71.2%, Private Banks 28.8% · In Jun-24: NBFCs had 62.6% — NBFCs recovering share
Lender Market Share by Value — Jun 2022 to Jun 2025
NBFCs dominate through dealer-embedded point-of-sale financing · Bajaj Finance, HDB, Tata Capital
Geography — Deep Digital Reach
BT100 share of ~42% reflects online retail + kirana finance penetration
Originations by City Tier — Q4 FY26
Second-highest BT100 penetration — fintech/ecommerce EMI channels enabling rural reach
Hidden Insights
Strategic signals in India's smallest-ticket, fastest-volume retail credit segment
Insight 01 · Velocity Economy
CD Loans Turn Over Faster Than Gold Loans — 177% Originations/POS Ratio Is the Highest in Retail
FY26 originations of ₹1.77L Cr against POS of ₹1.00L Cr gives an originations/POS ratio of 177% — higher than gold loans (163%). This is driven by 6–12 month no-cost EMI structures on consumer electronics. At any given date, the entire CD loan portfolio is less than 8 months old. This creates extreme sensitivity to disbursement velocity: if festive season originations miss expectations by 10%, portfolio outstanding drops materially within two quarters. CD loans are not a "lending" business in the traditional sense — they are a payment infrastructure business with credit risk embedded in short-duration consumer assets.
Orig/POS: 177% — highest in retail. Avg tenure: ~6–8 months
Insight 02 · Bajaj Finance Concentration
This Segment Is Effectively Bajaj Finance's Balance Sheet — Systemic Risk in Single-Lender Dominance
NBFCs control 71.2% of CD loan POS. Within NBFCs, Bajaj Finance accounts for an estimated 60-65% of CD loan originations through its exclusive EMI card network at 100,000+ retail touchpoints. This means a single NBFC is the primary risk-bearer for the majority of India's consumer durable credit. A Bajaj Finance credit incident, funding squeeze, or regulatory action would have an immediate and severe impact on the entire segment's availability — not just Bajaj's own book. No other retail lending segment has this degree of single-entity concentration risk.
Bajaj Finance est. ~60-65% of NBFC CD originations — extreme concentration
Insight 03 · PAR Seasonality
The Sep-Quarter PAR 180+ Spike Is a Feature, Not a Bug — But Most Analysts Misread It
Sep-24 PAR 180+: 5.2%. Sep-25 PAR 180+: 5.5%. Mar-24 PAR 180+: 1.9%. This 270 bps gap is entirely seasonal. Festive Q3 originations (Oct-Dec) that go delinquent are in the PAR 1-90 bucket by the following Jun-quarter and the PAR 91-180 bucket by Sep-quarter. By March, they've either been resolved or written off, making March PAR look pristine. Analysts citing the Sep-25 PAR 180+ of 5.5% as a credit alarm were reading a calendar effect as a credit signal — a fundamental analytical error for this product category.
Sep PAR 180+: 5.2-5.5% vs Mar PAR 180+: 1.5-1.9% — pure seasonality, not stress
Insight 04 · Private Bank Re-entry
Private Banks Hit 37.4% Share in Jun-24, Then Fell Back to 28.8% — The Channel War Is Live
Private bank share jumped from 26.8% (Mar-24) to 37.4% (Jun-24) — a massive 10.6 ppt gain in one quarter, suggesting an aggressive push by HDFC Bank and others into point-of-sale consumer finance via co-lending or direct origination. By Jun-25, private bank share fell back to 28.8%, suggesting NBFCs (primarily Bajaj Finance) successfully defended their dealer relationships. This quarter-to-quarter swing in a ₹1L Cr market is equivalent to ₹8,600 Cr of POS changing hands between lenders in 12 months. The CD loan market is in active competitive warfare, not stable equilibrium.
Pvt bank share swing: 26.8% → 37.4% → 28.8% in 15 months — active channel war
Insight 05 · New-to-Credit Gateway
CD Loans Are India's Single Largest New-to-Credit Onboarding Channel — But the Data Doesn't Show It
Consumer durable EMI is the first formal credit product for millions of first-time borrowers — typically a ₹15-25K loan for a mobile phone at a Reliance Digital or Croma outlet. The volume surge from 289L (FY21) to 897.5L (FY26) loans represents millions of bureau-profile creations for previously credit-invisible Indians. These borrowers then migrate to larger personal loan and credit card products — making CD loan origination performance a 12-18 month leading indicator of formal credit market addressability. Lenders capturing NTC borrowers via CD loans are building the pipeline for the next decade of personal loan growth.
CD loans: gateway product for NTC India. 897L FY26 loans = 897L potential credit profiles