Portfolio Outstanding & Active Accounts
Mar 2020 – Mar 2026 · POS in ₹ K Crore (₹000s Crore) · Accounts in Lakh
₹1.89 L Cr
POS Mar-26
+15.1% YoY · +2.7% QoQ
372.3 L
Active Accounts Mar-26
+9.7% YoY
₹50.9K
Avg Outstanding / Account
vs ₹31.7K (Mar-20)
2.69x
POS growth FY20→FY26
Solid volume + premiumisation
Portfolio Outstanding (₹ K Cr) vs Active Accounts (Lakh) — Mar 2020 to Mar 2026
Steady parallel growth — unlike personal loans, account growth and POS growth are tracking together
Originations — Value & Volume
Annual FY2020–FY2026 · Value in ₹ Crore · Volume in Lakh loans
🏍️
Two-wheeler loans: the original financial inclusion credit product. India sells 15–17M two-wheelers annually, of which ~45-50% are financed. Originations of ₹1.21L Cr across 129.9L loans in FY26 implies an average tenure of ~18 months and a portfolio turnover ratio of ~64% — somewhere between the personal loan (69%) and auto loan (44%). This is consistent with 18–24 month EMI structures for entry-level bikes.
Annual Originations Value (₹ K Cr)
FY20–FY26 · Recovery from FY21 Covid dip · Consistent FY23-FY26 growth
Volume (Lakh) & Avg Ticket Size (₹K)
Volume growing; ATS rising on 150cc+ premiumisation
Asset Quality — Highest PAR but Improving Fast
PAR 31-90 still highest in retail at 2.7%, but down from 4.5% in Mar-20 — a 180 bps secular improvement
⚠️
Two-wheeler loans carry the highest PAR 31-90 of all retail products at 2.7%. However, context matters: (1) PAR has fallen from 4.5% (FY20) to 2.7% (FY26) — a 180 bps improvement while portfolio grew 2.7x; (2) these are small-ticket collateralised loans; repossession of a 2W is faster and cheaper than any other asset class; (3) the borrower profile (semi-urban, first-time financed) has inherently higher delinquency than salaried professionals. The PAR level is "priced in" to the higher spread these products command.
PAR Trend — Mar 2020 to Mar 2026
Consistent improvement across all buckets — credit quality upgrading as bureau coverage improves
PAR Data — All Reported Periods
| Period | PAR 31–90% | PAR 91–180% | Combined 31–180 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar-2020 | 4.5% | 2.3% | 6.8% |
| Mar-2021 | 6.8% | 3.9% | 10.7% |
| Mar-2022 | 5.2% | 2.3% | 7.5% |
| Mar-2023 | 3.3% | 1.9% | 5.2% |
| Mar-2024 | 3.1% | 1.6% | 4.7% |
| Jun-2024 | 3.5% | 1.6% | 5.1% |
| Jun-2025 | 3.7% | 2.1% | 5.8% |
| Mar-2025 | 3.6% | 1.7% | 5.3% |
| Dec-2025 | 3.1% | 1.6% | 4.7% |
| Mar-2026 | 2.7% | 1.4% | 4.1% |
Ticket Size — Premiumisation from Entry to Performance
ATS rose from ₹69.5K (FY21) to ₹93.9K (Q1 FY26) — a 35% increase as 150cc+ segment takes share
Avg Ticket Size at Origination (₹K)
Consistent upward trend driven by SUV-parallel premiumisation in 2W
Q1 Originations Trend — FY23 to FY26
Q1 is typically weaker than Q3-Q4 — shows underlying growth rate
Geography — Most Rural-Distributed Product After Gold
BT100 cities contribute ~51% of 2W loan originations — the deepest rural reach in retail credit after gold loans
Originations by City Tier — Q4 FY26
Majority from outside Top 50 cities — true mass market credit
BT100 Share vs Other Products
Two-wheeler highest BT100 concentration across all retail segments
Hidden Insights
Strategic signals beneath India's most rural retail credit product
Insight 01 · Covid Residual
The Mar-2021 PAR of 10.7% Was the Highest in Retail — and Its Resolution Defines the Post-Covid Book
Two-wheeler PAR spiked to 10.7% (combined 31-180) in Mar-21 — the highest delinquency reading across all retail segments during Covid. This reveals the fragility of the semi-urban/rural income base that 2W borrowers represent. By Mar-26, combined PAR has recovered to 4.1% — still above pre-Covid levels of 6.8% (Mar-20). The book has not fully normalised. The lenders who wrote off/restructured Covid-era 2W loans aggressively (HFCs, NBFCs) are now showing cleaner PAR than those who evergreened accounts.
Covid peak PAR 31-180: 10.7% (Mar-21) → 4.1% (Mar-26) — still above pre-Covid
Insight 02 · EV Disruption Risk
Two-Wheelers Are the Highest EV-Transition-Risk Product in Retail Lending
EV two-wheelers now represent 6–8% of annual 2W sales and growing fast. Unlike 4W EVs, 2W EVs are genuinely price-competitive with ICE at entry segments. The disruption risk for lenders: (1) ICE 2W residual values collapse faster as EV adoption accelerates; (2) EV 2W loans have different tenor/LTV structures; (3) OEM-specific exposure becomes a risk factor (Hero, Honda vs Ola Electric, TVS iQube). Lenders concentrated in ICE 2W may face faster-than-expected portfolio runoff as customers switch to EV with different financing patterns.
EV 2W share: 6-8% and rising · Residual value risk not priced in 3-yr loan tenors
Insight 03 · NBFC Concentration
Two-Wheeler Lending Is an NBFC Oligopoly — Bajaj Finance + HDB Control 60%+ of the Market
Unlike home loans (PSU-heavy) or credit cards (private bank-heavy), 2W lending is dominated by specialist NBFCs with dealer-embedded origination networks. Bajaj Finance, Mahindra Finance, HDFC's HDB Financial, and Shriram Finance collectively control the vast majority of 2W originations through exclusive or preferred OEM dealer arrangements. This creates significant channel concentration risk: any regulatory action on NBFCs (RBI guidelines on co-lending, credit risk weight changes) has disproportionate impact on 2W credit availability, particularly in rural markets where PSU banks have minimal 2W lending infrastructure.
NBFC share est. 65-70% of 2W originations — highest NBFC dependency in retail
Insight 04 · Premiumisation Paradox
ATS Growth Is Masking Volume Slowdown — 2W Loan Volume Growth Is Decelerating
FY23–FY26 origination volumes: 96.7L → 112.7L → 121.2L → 129.9L. Annual incremental volume additions are 16L, 8.5L, 8.7L — clearly decelerating despite a growing economy. Entry-level 2W (≤110cc, sub-₹70K) is actually declining as customers either skip to 125cc+ or opt for EVs. The portfolio growth of 15% is almost entirely driven by ATS expansion from 150cc+ premium bikes. This premiumisation concentrates credit risk into a narrower, higher-ticket borrower band — reducing the credit diversity that originally defined 2W lending as a mass-market product.
Volume growth FY24→FY26: decelerating 8.5L/yr → 8.7L/yr · ATS driving all POS growth
Insight 05 · Rural Income Proxy
Two-Wheeler PAR Is India's Best Real-Time Rural Income Stress Indicator
Given 51% of 2W originations come from BT100 cities, and borrowers are typically self-employed or wage workers in semi-urban/rural India, 2W PAR is the most direct credit signal of rural income stress. The Jun-25 uptick in PAR 31-90 (3.7%) and 91-180 (2.1%) was a canary signal — it preceded official data on rural income stress by 1–2 quarters. Analysts tracking rural consumption, FMCG rural growth, or kharif season impacts should monitor 2W PAR as a leading indicator rather than a lagging credit metric. The Mar-26 improvement to 2.7% is a positive signal for rural income trajectory.
2W PAR = best leading indicator of rural income stress in retail credit data